Let's look at the facts. World of Warcraft is hardly flagging (currently at 8.5 million subscribers and with a net taking of around $1.5 billion annually), but it is coming up three years old. It's not going to last forever, but even if 99% of the population left there would still be 85,000 subscribers left in the game - more than enough to warrant continuing to support the game. I also expect to see at least one more expansion, likely three more, the next of which will be Northrend (from the Frozen Throne), in an attempt to keep WoW going/growing for as long as possible. There's little argument that Blizzard WILL bring out another game, and I imagine we can expect it in about three years - some time in 2010, by which point WoW will be six years old and most certainly have had its day. And I imagine it'll completely dominate the market again, at least for a while, because at the end of the day Blizzard do make high-quality games. That, and their success automatically breeds a level of hype in the gaming world that is literally unparallelled by any other gaming company or franchise (maybe Halo and Half-Life come close, but not within touching distance).
WoW has a female night elf on the box cover. Half Life 2 has Gordon Freeman. I think I may just have solved this mystery.
Now, about the content. There's four options here, the first being a MMO set in an entirely new universe and the remaining three being a title set in one of Blizzard's established universes - Warcraft, Starcraft or Diablo. Diablo is a rich universe that could transfer well to a MMORPG universe, but it lacks the depth of the Warcraft universe - nevertheless, it could translate well. I can imagine the Evil side would have a lot of choice of monstrous races, while the Good side would have humans and angels (and they could probably think of some other ones too). The classes could be numerous, given that there were 7 in Diablo II alone if you include the expansion. Most people write off Diablo as being too WoW-like, but by the time the next MMO comes out I doubt that'll be an issue. Diablo is quite an adult world, but then a lot of the criticism aimed at WoW is that it's cartoony and seemingly geared towards kids. If Age of Conan's realistic style succeeds, Funcom may find Blizzard aggressively expanding into their territory.
A World of Warcraft II has a certain appeal, too. First up, it's a familiar world that might well lure old players back with a wave of nostalgia if they're thinking about giving up WoW around now. If the game is set in the future, you've got an excuse to change the world considerably, keeping the experience fresh. Having said that, my money is not on a WoW2. This is because, in order to change the world enough to create a different gaming experience, Blizzard would have to have a catastrophe strike Azeroth, or set it at least a century in the future. And remember that WoW is not the only game in the Warcraft Universe - I fully expect to see a Warcraft 4 in the future, continuing the storylines of WC3 and WoW. And revealing the future or wrecking the world would make this prohibitively difficult to achieve, so I don't expect to see a WoW2. Not until after a WC4, at least.
Starcraft. Now, this IS an interesting topic. With Starcraft being considered one of the finest games of all time and a universe that has the potential to be very cool indeed (though it's rather underdeveloped with only a single game and expansion pack to its name), it's definitely a fertile ground for MMO exploitation. What form this will take is debatable, though. Let's look at the facts. SC2 is looking to be very good indeed (see an explanation why Blizzard will make it amazing, regardless of budget), and will doubtless expand the universe of SC a great deal. I expect to see it hit the shelves in late 2008, given the state it appears to be in at the moment seems quite advanced - but given the slow speed at which Blizzard are currently releasing information. This would give between 18 months and 2 years to my supposed release date for the next-gen MMORPG. Currently, the universe isn't particularly suitable to a WoW-style MMORPG, for a series of reasons. Firstly, basically everyone except one unit per race uses ranged weapons. Secondly, there's a lot of vehicles. Thirdly, unlike Warcraft in which battle raged across Azeroth, SC takes place across a multitude of different planets and thus there's no real defined setting for it. There's a defined feel, true, but that's not quite the same thing. Now, I fully expect SC2 to flesh things out a bit, completely intentionally making the universe more easily ported in the MMO world. About what I think they'll do with it - well, I'll mention that in a moment.
The only thing likely to reunite Korea.
Firstly, I have to dismiss out of hand the idea that they'll do another MMORPG set outside their existing franchises. I don't see them doing that at this stage, because there's not really much for them to gain by doing it. WoW didn't actually bear much resemblance to the Warcraft games I've played, true, but at least it was a recognisable name that I subconsciously associate with quality even if the Blizzard label were not present. I, along with many others, would be very surprised (and disappointed) if Blizzard did not use their existing franchises for their next gen MMOs.
So, what do I see coming, Starcraft or Diablo? Well, here's the thing: I see both of them coming but, perhaps surprisingly, I see a Diablo MMORPG arriving first. Why do I think that, when most people predict a Starcraft game coming first? Well, because I can't see Blizzard releasing a SC MMORPG. Nope, I see them releasing an MMOFPS. I see an MMOFPS as a logical progression of the current trend in online shooters to have character progression and large scale battles, as demonstrated by Battlefield 2 (and no doubt soon Quake Wars and Unreal Whatever It's Called). I don't consider vehicles to be a good addition to the current system of timer-based fighting that exists in MMORPGs, but they sure as hell work in BF2 and the like. Whether or not the players would get to use vehicles/play as the heavy zerg units, I don't know, because it could work either way.
In my eyes, the game would be about 50% PvP and PvE. The PvP would take place between the different races, like a glorified game of BF2. PvE would involve levelling up and raiding, too - but how could you raid in an FPS game? Well, quite easily really. Get together the 40 people, split into groups of five, and then zone into a large instanced zone full of NPC bots. Certain parts of the map would need certain classes to get past, like getting around the perimeter walls might need snipers to take out turret gunners, while clearing a minefield might need a player with a shield generator to cover a class capable of minesweeping. If you have a series of objectives that had to be hit in a co-ordinated strike between different groups, it would be quite complex as well. One group might have to hold a computer terminal for 2 or 3 minutes against an enemy assault, while their hacker brought down the target base's shields - at which point, a group that had taken over an artillery turret would have 30 seconds to shell the defense systems to cover the advance of the rest of the units, who would then have say 5 minutes to fight their way inside and shut down the defences, so that the other two squads could join them. If it were like CS, where a dead player is out for the duration of the game, it'd be quite exciting (and there'd be a use for medics), and it were done well it'd be really good fun. You could gear up like in WoW, where you get armour that increases your survivability (or perhaps contains functionality like limited auto-aim or IR detection or something), while weapons could do more damage or have bigger clips or better scopes etc. This would be a game with far more player skill than WoW currently has, and it would actually be truly revolutionary (and people would use gear due to personal preference for its features as much as stats, which would be nice). Games have tried this kinda thing before, with limited success, but for this to work you would need tens of thousands of players, so it would seem like a proper war was raging. Blizzard's name would guarantee that, and an MMOFPS would open up a whole new market to Blizzard - FPS games. They'd make a LOT of money out of it, and it'd be another feather in their collective caps.
Huxley (named after the author of Brave New World) is probably the first real attempt at a MMOFPS, but I only heard about it today when I typed the term 'MMOFPS' into Google. If this was a Blizzard game, even my cat would be excited. Not that he'd be any good at it: lack of opposable digits, you see. That's why your pets never beat you at Halo. Unless they're monkeys. Or children.
Diablo, however, I see as the logical progression of the fantasy MMO genre. 2010 will be a decade after Diablo II came out, so it's more than possible that Blizzard will stick to what they know and will bring out Diablo III as their next MMO. I'd like to think a SC MMO would be the next one they release, but I have a sneaking suspicion it's going to be Diablo. So thats what I'm going to predict. A Diablo MMO coming out in 2010, with a SC MMOFPS following in about 2012.
Only five years to wait to see how right I've been, then. Comments enabled on this page, so you're welcome to post what YOU think too.
Hektor.
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