I'm of the belief that within five years the majority of cross-platform releases will involve cross-platform play. However, I'm starting to wonder what this means for the evolution of the next-gen consoles - or even the current batch (and indirectly, for the future of the PC). MMORPGS play quite a big part in this, so if you're only interested in that aspect of the article then bear with me.
Currently, the only game out there that allows cross-platform gaming is Shadowrun - and I imagine most games will follow a similar model at first (basically, Xbox 360 players play on Xbox-Live, while PC players have to upgrade to Vista and then pay a fee for XBox-Live membership). With only Shadowrun available I don't see this as a particularly great idea, but if some flagship titles start to bridge the gap, we might see this become more popular. Team Fortress 2 is clearly going to be one of these titles, but it's going to be immensely popular anyway. When PC players are perfectly able to find a game of TF2 without upgrading to Vista or paying for it, there's no reason to pay for Xbox-Live. Thus, I think the logical progression will be to link Valve's servers (Steam) with the Xbox-Live ones, so the PC gamers don't have to jump through hoops to play against console players, while Microsoft still get their cut from the Xbox 360 players playing online. This solution isn't just applicable to Valve, of course, because the majority of gaming companies offer similar online support.
In a desperate attempt to break even, the Peruvian government finally allowed tourists to do what they had always wanted to do in the country's Inca ruins: sniper rifle duels.
The next issue, then, is balance. For FPS games, mouse and keyboard is king. Yeah, people who are really good on consoles might be able to stay in touch, but a mouse generally gives far more precision than an analogue stick. Shadowrun got around this by implementing a heavy auto-aim system for everyone, and giving PC gamers twice as much recoil on every gun. That's not an ideal solution, and don't expect to see many more like it. Instead, I expect to see a mouse and keyboard becoming increasingly common on consoles. But I don't expect to see that happen too quickly, because I think consoles are trying to resist the idea of being a computer that you can't upgrade.
Thus, I don't expect to see FPS games being the sparks that ignite the fire of cross-platform gaming. Instead, I fully expect it to be MMORPGS - specifically, Age of Conan. With an MMORPG, you don't have to worry about all the jazz with PC gamers having to pay - they have to pay a monthly fee anyway, they're used to it. Other MMORPG games also will always want more subscribers to earn more money, too, so the large markets of the Xbox 360 crowds will be tempting for them. But overall, the type of game is well suited to console gaming because the combat system is less based on instant reflexes - with the introduction of online voice chat, you probably wouldn't need a keyboard at all. Thus, I expect to see quite a lot of cross platform MMORPGs coming out after Age of Conan starts to capitalise on the market after it's Xbox 360 release. I think the Xbox will see more of them due to its close links with Microsoft, but I believe by the time the next gen of consoles comes around Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony will be bending over backwards to incorporate cross-platform play into their machines.
This leaves PCs in a slightly strange position, as the increases in chip power will obviously be utilised in servers, but with gamers possibly migrating to more inexpensive consoles instead, the desire for high-end graphics advances will fade. Perhaps they'll trudge along as media stations for a while, but I see the consoles eventually snapping up those markets too. But by that time they'll probably be very PC-like themselves, except they won't be upgradable. I must admit, I quite like the idea of just buying a new console every 4 years and knowing that the playing field is perfectly level between everyone - it's much less hassle than gearing out a new gaming PC every few years, only to realise most of your friends can't play the same games as you because they've not managed to buy a good enough machine yet.
Microsoft's ongoing problems with weight reached crisis point with the release of the Xbox 740.
Having said that, there are already two versions on the PS3 on the market. By the time of next-gen consoles, can we expect to see several different models available? I hope not, otherwise the point of the console - ease of use and less complexity when compared to a PC - will have been lost.
But we'll have to wait to see what'll happen, won't we? Keep your eyes on Age of Conan for Xbox 360, too. If it does well, expect to see others follow in its footsteps, and expect to see the MMORPG market get even bigger.
Hektor.
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